Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

Expected monetary value (EMV) is a quantitative risk technique that calculates the average outcome of a risk by multiplying its probability by its impact in money terms. Summing the EMV of all identified risks gives an overall figure for a project’s risk exposure.

For example, a 20% chance of a €50,000 cost overrun has an EMV of −€10,000. EMV is often used within decision tree analysis to compare options that each carry uncertain outcomes, helping a team choose the path with the best expected result.

Related: risk exposure, decision tree, quantitative risk analysis.

Last updated: 4 July 2026 · By Tom, PMP-certified since 2004

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